The price of olive oil is rising again after the April decline

In early May, the average price of EVO oils produced in Europe increased after a recent downturn. This rise follows a drop in Spanish EVO oil prices (up to 10%), driven by market uncertainty about raw material stocks needed until the next harvest.

In the Mediterranean, Italy is an exception: prices at the origin have remained stable since January. Italian production is insufficient to meet internal demand, as reported by Certified Origins, a major producer and distributor of certified extra virgin olive oil.

The "Spain effect" in April. Abundant rains in the Iberian Peninsula, a forecast of a good 2024-2025 harvest, and decreased domestic consumption led to a price decline in EVO, virgin, and refined oils. Spanish producers released part of their stocks, causing a price drop in other producing countries.

European Commission data shows that domestic consumption is recovering after price increases between 2023 and 2024. Large exports from Spain have revealed insufficient stocks for the next harvest, causing prices to rise across Europe.

In Italy, the average price of EVO oil has remained high at around 9.50 €/Kg since January. National consumption absorbs between 400,000 and 550,000 tons annually, nearly double Italy's production of about 290,000 tons.

Mediterranean price trends. In Spain, the average price at the origin rose to 7.85 €/Kg after hitting 7.50 €/Kg in April. Tunisian EVO oil followed these trends, with prices at 7.35 €/Kg in April and 7.95 €/Kg in May. In Greece, where oil availability was lower, the market was less dynamic, and the price remained stable at around 8.35 €/Kg.

In Spain, at the end of May, the Junta de Andalucía reported prices at 8.51 €/Kg for EVO oil, 7.43 €/Kg for virgin oil, and 6.80 €/Kg for lampante oil. April rains helped replenish Andalusia's water reserves to 43% capacity, up 29% from 2023. Despite optimism for the 2024/25 harvest, rising domestic consumption and foreign trade raise doubts about meeting global demand. Spain and Europe are approaching the next harvest with reduced stocks: about 660,000 tons of olive oil, with 30% reserved for large bottlers. There's a risk of significant global price increases due to climate events or consumption changes.

"Investing in the Italian agricultural supply chain is crucial to address the growing challenges in the olive oil sector," says Giovanni Quaratesi, Head of Corporate Global Affairs at Certified Origins. "While Italian Extra Virgin quality is globally recognized, recent data shows our production doesn't meet domestic demand. We can reduce the supply-demand gap through long-term initiatives, promoting new plants and recovering abandoned olive groves. A new vision is needed to make the sector resilient to new market dynamics, preventing significant commercial imbalances for businesses and citizens."